Improvement of Grey Model for Predicting Crack Growth

Stenly Tangkuman, Gerrits Soplanit, Rivco Mamoto, Gunawan Dwi Haryadi, Michael E. Rembet

Abstract


Predicting crack growth of any structure is a prerequisite for reliable and effective structural health prognostics. This paper presents a model to predict the future state of crack growth based on grey model and one-step-ahead forecasting technique. Grey model is a time series forecasting model that uses operations of accumulated generation to construct differential equations. Specifically, the feasibility of grey model as a predictor for crack growth prognostics system has been investigated. Basic Grey model has employed to forecast the future state of crack growth, but the result was unsatisfactory. In order to improve the accuracy of prediction, a modification of Grey model has been developed. Finally, real trending data of crack testing was employed for evaluating the modified model. However the model was built by using a few input data, it is able to track closely the change of crack growth path.

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References


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