THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE TREND OF INDONESIA’S GDP PER CAPITA 1986-2022

Alfithisnain Nur Aini, Agus Salim, Lusmino Basia

Abstract


GDP per capita is an indicator of evaluating the standard of living of the population in a country. Economic turmoil causes the level of GDP per capita to fluctuate. This study aims to see the influence of foreign debt, gross savings, inflation, and foreign direct investment (FDI) variables on GDP per capita trends in Indonesia. In this study, the ARDL method was chosen to determine the short-term and long-term effects of foreign debt, gross savings, inflation, and foreign investment as independent variables on GDP per capita as the dependent variable. The data used is time series from the World Bank and Bank Indonesia (BI) from 1986-2022, including GDP per capita, foreign debt, gross savings, inflation, and FDI.   The test results show that in the long run, the inflation variable has no effect on per capita income in Indonesia in the 1986-2022 interval. In the short term, inflation negatively influences the trend of per capita income in Indonesia. The foreign debt variable has a negative effect in the short term and a positive effect in the long term. The gross savings variable has a positive short-term and long-term impact. The FDI variable has a positive short-term and long-term effect on Indonesia's GDP per capita.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Fista, Bela. 2013. “Penanaman Modal Asing Terhadap.” 8(1):22–30.

Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi, and Indanazulfa Qurrota A’yun. 2022. “Dynamic Analysis On Export, FDI and Growth in Indonesia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model.” Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura 24(3):350. doi: 10.14414/jebav.v24i3.2717.

Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi, Uswatun Khasanah, and Siti ’Aisyah Baharudin. 2023. “Determinant of Property Price Through The Monetary Variables: An ARDL Approach.” Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan 24(1):12–23. doi: 10.23917/jep.v24i1.20588.

Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi, and Nano Prawoto. 2014. “Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Penentuan Titik Ambang Batas Inflasi Di Indonesia.” Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan 15(April):72–77.

Lamaile, Ernestus Florian. 2022. “Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Umkm, Indeks Keterbukaan Perdagangan, Pertumbuhan Pendapatan Per Kapita, Dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Terhadap Pengentasan Kemiskinan Di 5 Negara Asean.” J-Rema 1(3):38. doi: 10.25170/jrema.v1i3.4593.

Manzoor, Faiza, Longbao Wei, Mohammad Nurunnabi, and Qazi Abdul Subhan. 2019. “Role of SME in Poverty Alleviation in SAARC Region via Panel Data Analysis.” Sustainability 11(22):6480. doi: 10.3390/su11226480.

Masniadi, Rudi. 2012. “Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk, Tabungan, Dan Investasi Terhadap Tingkat Pendapatan Per Kapita Indonesia.” Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan 10(1):69. doi: 10.22219/jep.v10i1.3718.

Meilaniwati, Hanna, and Tannia Tannia. 2021. “Analisis Pengaruh Penanaman Modal Asing (Pma), Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (Pmdn) , Trade Openness (To) Dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Asean-5 Tahun 2009-2018.” Business Management Journal 17(1):89. doi: 10.30813/bmj.v17i1.2582.

Salim, Agus, and Suripto Suripto. 2023. “Does Prudential Capital Reduce Bank Risk-Taking? Empirical Evidence from the Indonesian Banks Industry.” Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan 24(1):182–97. doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17696.

Salistia, Faisal, Muhammad Rizal Arsyad, Dedi Junaedi, Arman Paramansyah, and Efrita Norman. 2022. “Analisis Dampak Utang Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia Periode 1976-2021: Studi Komparasi Antar Rezim Pemerintahan.” Al-Kharaj : Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah 4(6):1831–47. doi: 10.47467/alkharaj.v4i6.970.

Triyola, F., Rabbi, Tamara, and Khairani Alawiyah Matondang. 2023. “Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi Pada Pertumbuhan Perekonomian Indonesia.” IJM: Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary 1:185–91.

Yuniarti, Dini. 2005. “Uji Kausalitas: Utang Luar Negeri Dan Capital Flight Di Indonesia, 1974-2002.” Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan 10(3):265–73.

Zakiyyah, Nurul, Firsty Lubis, and Intan Wahyuni. 2021. “Determinants of Poverty in Indonesia.” Sociologia y Tecnociencia 11(2):243–67. doi: 10.24197/st.2.2021.243-267.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Publihser:
Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Editorial Address:
Yogyakarta

This work is licensed under CC BY 4.0